the future of the ad industry: totally f-ed?

Why advertising is doomed, in three damning charts.

To quote the beautiful Spring Awakening, "There's a moment you know, you're f*ed". 
Have we reached that point?

That the industry, the world!, is changing is old news. The rise of digital specialists, digital agencies, specialist agencies, specialist specialists, integrated teams, trading desks, et al, et al, et al, are our reaction to this formerly new ones-and-zeroes world. But have we evolved quickly enough? A few things in the news have made me seriously doubt it.

You're F-ed, poof point #1:
THE CONTINUED, METEORIC, NON-STOP RISE OF AD BLOCKERS
Ad blocking use doubled from 2013 to 2014, and grew by another fifty percent in 2015.  Apple and Samsung made headlines this year after allowing and pre-installing adblockers on their mobile operating systems. Estimated revenue losses to ad blocking are in the billions. (Adobe/Pagefair).

Image from MIT Technology Review

With ad revenues moving switfly from traditional media to online, ad blockers will probably not kill advertising altogether, but there should be implications about consumer protection and interest that the industry must contend with.


You're F-ed, poof point #2:
GOOGLE & FACEBOOK ARE TAKING OVER, OVER AGENCIES
I saw this video a few weeks ago and was startled by its implications, that advertising as I know it is basically f*ed. Mr. Galloway is an extremely engaging speaker who might have jumped to a few conclusions. The counterpoint to Facebook and Google are other publishers, not agency networks. We will never have the revenue that media publishers do, that has never been the case. But at the same time, the threat exists that if readership is more or less split between Google/YouTube, Facebook and Netflix (only somehwat too simplistic, see this), they can start to take on agency roles and then take those fees as well.

A clear sign that these publishers are ready to take our lunch? Read on.


You're F-ed, poof point #1:
CREATIVE TALENT MOVING OVER TO TECH. IN HOARDES.
As someone who has worked in the industry for almost ten years, this Adweek headline was depressing but also resonated with me.

"Fifty-four percent of people who left advertising said a major reason they changed industries was because they felt there was little opportunity for advancement, compared to a 45 percent global average." (Adweek) More of the findings were released at another forum: 50% wanted more challenging work, and 46% were unsatisfied with the level of senior management. (LinkedIn)

The continued move of creative talent from agencies to tech is so notable that recent coverage has talked about how agencies are "fighting back". (The answer is, not with much.)


Advertising is hard, it isn't for everybody. I've always loved the feel of our industry, "the tinkerers", as Mr. Schenck called us. The question that remains is whether this industry is still the right home for us. Maybe like everything in this crazy digital world, we need to rethink, disrupt ourselves and maybe find new applications for these skills.

Post-Digital Musings at Stream Asia 2015

Where do we go from here?

As marketers we claim to have a deep understanding of our customers and their culture. The fragmentation and complexity of our post-digital world, however, have made it increasingly difficult to put our finger on the consumer pulse. Technology, communication, socialization now evolve so rapidly that before we can wrap our heads around the status quo reality is once again different. I’ve recently discovered that it can help to have an industry support group of sorts that we can discuss and process these things with. The scenario may keep changing but what is important is to keep up the inquiry, to keep processing. 

I’ve been thinking about the idea of the Post-Digital for some time – what our world has become through digital and how it will continue to evolve. Trends like the Maker movement and the 3D printing industry have made me wonder if our digital future will lead us back to the basics of the physical realm, because while technology-enabled these developments feel distinctly analog. On the other extreme are innovations like virtual reality glasses, hololenses and smart homes, smart chargers, smart everything. These technologies make me wonder if we’ve swallowed red pill and jumped into the rabbit hole.

I finally got to explore this topic in greater depth last week at Stream, a WPP (un)conference that invites participants to examine the future of digital and communications. WPP brings agency folk together with clients, founders, media, social entrepreneurs, creators, makers and geeks of all sorts to exchange ideas and questions. It is an un-conference – no suits, keynotes or a set agenda. In this particular Stream drones were flying around and there was a trapeze. Standard activities are the gadget show-and-tell, Powerpoint-eoke, and midnight cook-off. It’s a little random. Much of the activity time is set for participant-generated discussions. When users arrive they can post a topic and anyone can show up to have an exchange and/or heated debate.

This is how, on a sunny Saturday morning, I ended up in a Post-Digital roundtable in Club Med, Phuket. (Though in true ad agency fashion by roundtable I mean a casual arrangement of lounge and folding chairs). More questions were brought up than answered, but it was comforting to discover that others in the industry also struggle to understand what our post-digital world is and will be.
I found that many comments and questions helped me firm up ideas on my earlier question about the duality of the post-digital. Here are three potential scenarios based on our group exchange:

• The post-digital will go back to basics: The maker movement will teach us to work again with our hands. 3D printing will have us rediscover physics and then allow those proficient enough to produce their own goods. Individuals will be able to trade and barter with this merchandise. Relationships will become the main selling tool; there will be little need for mass-market brands in this DIY future.
• The post-digital will lead us down the rabbit hole: Robots will eventually take over our marketing jobs as AI will apparently overtake human intelligence in about a decade. The children of Generation Z, our future consumers, will be raised as ‘screen-enabled’. Their intense interaction with five screens and up will have effects on real-world interfaces – they will expect taps and swipes to operate what in our time were analog things like faucets and hinges. To prepare children for the programmable future “reading, writing, coding” will become the building blocks of primary education.
• The middle ground: We will live within an Internet of Things, with every machine sensor- and web-enabled. Machine-to-machine communication will become a thing. Most things won’t change – our need to convene, touch, socialize, make love, and emotion will remain a bigger factor in human and brand engagement than the strictly rational or data-driven.

The perspectives I heard were so interesting. Some, none, a few may prevail, only time will tell. What has become a little clearer to me now is that we are utterly unprepared for these changes. As we were discussing our value to brands and clients in this context one participant commented on marketers’ strong hesitation to let go, to be vulnerable to the changes. This is fair, though our preoccupation with processing this new space may be because we are the one generation that straddles both the analog past and the digital future.

After the session we parted ways, heading to other discussions that further exemplified the complexity – and sometimes absurdity – of our digital present. Talks covered everything from Bitcoin and the future of behavioral buying to “Digital Breaking Bad: The Illegal Undernet” and “The Selfie Stick: The end of mankind?”

It was good to be able to put my questions and thoughts forth to a group who were also processing these unprecedented changes. As an industry we have a lot of evolving and catching up to do. But it’s great to feel like we’re not alone in discovering and investigating this new landscape. If we can continue to come together and try to make fun or sense of the new digital world order, I think we’ll be ok.

mad life crosses my life

Mad Men hasn't always painted an accurate picture of the agency world. Of course that isn't all the show is about. But once in awhile they reference something that is poignantly true to ad life.

I've lagged in the last year and a half and am only now catching up on Seasons 6. Car brands have been a focus since the fifth season, and an industry tennet was established - that you aren't a bona fide ad shop until you have a car brand. When they launched anew in season five, Sterling Cooper Draper Price struggled to build a stable client roster. Finding a car brand seemed to be a quick strategy to establishing their foothold on Madison Avenue. They are given the opportunity to pitch for Jaguar and go to rather extreme lengths to secure the account. They end up (minor spoiler) retiring them this season and are almost immediately given the opportunity to go after a massive and truly iconic American car brand - Chevy.

In Episode 6.7 Don and his team walk through the GM offices ready to present work. In that moment Don's TV life crosses my advertising life squarely. There are heritage brands that are woven into our industry's heritage and I'm proud to have had my fingertips on one baton even just for awhile. 

(Season Seven paints a painfully brusque, goonish picture of the clients, which is I'm sure an exaggeration, but it makes for painfully good TV. And private jokes with agency colleagues. JUST KIDDING. Because they don't watch Mad Men. Joke. Joke. Joke.)